Europe is under attack, an out and out invasion which if control remedy is not applied soon the difficult choice of using bloody hard power or surrender is presented. I am not going to talk about the morality involving the true inequality of income in the world, which is the $5 a day folks in areas of $5,000 GDP per capita versus the $100 per day folks in areas of $40,000 GDP per capita. Personally I think there should be no immigration or emigration controls and let people go where they wish and replace borders with clear “rule of law” of that of the specific locales. But that is me and unlikely to be ever considered by the EU.
But the economic disparity which is right now only separated by the distance between Turkey and Kos , with Kos easily seen from Turkey on a clear day, is the cause of the current so called “refugee” crisis in Europe. While a relatively small amount of Syrians fleeing for their lives from Assad, ISIS or the “good guys” moderates do exist, they were merely the pathfinders and showed the way and how defenseless Europe is to the migration. Almost all the current migrant waves are looking to better their lot economically - and why not.
If you can land in Europe, especially Greece, you are in Europe for good.
There is not a father or mother in Africa and the entire Middle East and even South Central Asia who if they could afford the transit would not gather their children and strike out for Europe. And thus small babies are washed ashore in Turkey. Whats more it is the absence of law, of the state, which is allowing these parents to commit manslaughter on their own family as once they return from a failed attempt the state they originate from or the Turkish court system do not prosecute them. No one is gathering these people up at gunpoint and marching them into the sea, they are eagerly finding smugglers and paying the costs freely. These are not “human trafficers ” providing transit but they are committing man slaughter as well. But there is no court, no prosecuting authority, and if their heart is black enough they will accept the commission.
How many potential economic migrants are there? If it is accepted that this is an economic migration the number is incredible – about 100 million or more and will reach 20 million to 30 million quickly if nothing is done.
Why is Europe so vulnerable?
Because of Germany and the arrested development of the formation of the United States of Europe. The migrant crisis is showing a cross roads, where Europe allows Germany to continue to dominate Europe and basically loot it with Germany quite willing to accept the cost if the migrants to keep that power, or Germany is quickly subsumed into a greater Europe, surrenders is hegemony and Europe starting with the Euro Zone becomes a federation.
Germany was onboard as was all of Europe – but for the Gaullist wing of France – prior to Germany reunification. The program was the Monnet Plan, where periodic crisis would force Europe into further unity given that swaths of Europe were “straight jacketed” into a series of treaties that insist on only one direction. The Monnet Plan would be allowed by the USA, who still occupies Europe via NATO and via a remaining occupying force, as it would “keep the Russians out and the Germans down”. And Germany, at first too feeble but to go along and then later with East Germany held as a hostage for compliance, was a member participant of the Monnet Plan. The creation of the Euro and Maastricht start of the treaties to create trans-Europe institutions such as the ECJ and the ECB all were headed, as agreed to by all – the “United States of Europe”. The USE was to be a sovereign country with not only all the sovereign institutions such as the ECJ and the ECB but also an executive and representative bi-cameral parliament. That would lead to a USE hard power, a navy, army, air force and a coast guard. But there were still crises to come to add the executive and the representational parliament. So a ad hoc system of bureaucracy, competencies, and the EC providing the executive function. Later, as complexity of finance developed, the EuroGroup was created composed of the finance ministers. Power for this adhoc grouping was confederate based on GDP size and to a lesser degree population. So power started to evolve to Germany.
German re-unification before the launch of the Euro ended the “hostage power” to keep Germany “down” and what’s more allowed Germany to convert DM to the Euro had very advantageous rates. Then with the re-emergence of Gaullist in France, Germany struck a deal with France to end the Monnet Plan and jointly “rule” Europe. There was no need for hard power as the USA provided that, and Germany kept the “guilt” over WW II to shred what was their peace terms for their surrender – the Monnet Plan. Since the USA did the ugly tough stuff, Germany and France, with the balance of power going more and more to Germany, could simply start to loot the rest of Europe with the massively favorable internal terms of trade. Other nations similar to Germany like Netherlands were cut into the deal.
What resulted was Germany achieved more economically with the current system than they did in WW II.
But now reality bites. The USA hard power is there to protect American interests, certainly not to perform border duty or provide a coast guard. The true war refugees showed the desperate poor how easy it was to get to Europe. And a crisis now hits Europe unlike any of the others which cannot be handled with a confederacy but requires a federation. Germany is trying to keep the confederate hegemon and claiming a sanctimonious high road is willing to accept up to 800,000 refugees but with the small print being the German controlled EC will dispense the majority of that around all of Europe. Not considering how this “niceness” of Germany will double then triple then quadruple the migrant flow and there by kill scores of three year olds, mothers, children and fathers, it is obvious the German claims to “nice” is a ruse. If it were real Germany would be establishing beachside processing in Turkey or all launch points for the migrants and then provide secure transportation to Germany. They of course are doing anything but that rescue. Germany wants them to hit the seas in puny blowup almost toy boats or scramble through Hungarian razor wire.
So this ruse by Germany won’t work, and in fact gas the opposite effect and will induce a flood of ever greater migrants who now expect a welcoming Germany. No doubt ISIS and al Quada operatives are in the flow already with more to come. The debacle will become apparent, perhaps with a massacre of thousands by close to fascist Hungarians, or terrorist attack in Europe in support of ISIS, and thousands upon thousands drowned.
Obama won’t take action and after the poor way Europe used the USA in Libya and the lack of any real support against Assad and ISIS – Obama will just let Europe hang on this. The USA knows where the Monnet Plan will take Europe, a slightly large populace just as prosperous as the USA with a matching nuclear armed hard power. So the USA will allow this crisis to carry on as Germany wants. The “Obama Doctrine” offered in Cairo by Obama is showing its results – death and chaos – and now Assad does look like a more useful and beneficial partner to Europe and the USA. The Bush Doctrine was the right plan and would have prevented all of this from occurring, and if Obama had not surrendered Iraq to chaos and now ISIS, none of this would be happening.
But this is Europe’s crisis now.
Germany will work on keeping power, they will try as hard as they can to prevent Europe returning to the Monnet Plan, so many will die as they do so until the slaughter is of such a nature Germany relents. When that happens, and it will be terrible in the process, Europe will be shaken to its core. The current shredding of the Schengen Convention will make the confederacy with German hegemony exposed for the non-democratic construct that it truly is, an occupation of the rest of Europe by Germany and their cronies. The need for a functioning federal Europe will be obvious and the Europeans will insist that it is democratic. Along the way Greece and Italy will realize they can call Germany’s bluff and will do what Germany should if it were sincere – they will arrange safe transit and passage for hundreds of thousands form Africa and the Middle East but then dispatch them to Germany for processing.
Europe will not take even another 100,000 migrants.
So the country of Europe will be formed, perhaps not being called so but defined by its apparatus and institutions. First a coast guard will be formed to either prevent the migration (as Australia is doing now) or to provide rescue and security. But that will not slow the flow so a trans-European marine force will go and occupy areas that the migrants launch from or for areas like Turkey it will be a a police action in coordination with the local government. But in the end the only real remedy is to re-establish the state of Syria and other areas so as they can provide their own policing and social services and stop the migration. This will require a united Europe common force – an army and to support the army an air force and navy.
A crisis that even the brilliant Monnet could not have possibly foreseen may cause the final step in the creation of the United States of Europe.